We can't ever be the same again

Tree Rings by James St. John, courtesy Wikimedia Commons

Inside every tree is a time capsule. As a tree grows, its trunk thickens and a new layer forms. This goes on year after year, for the tree's whole life. When a tree is split open, you can see the neat, concentric circles spreading out from the centre. One ring for every year the tree lived. You can see the story of the tree's life in those rings. Thick rings tell you there was a longer growing season. Thin rings mean drought. Forest fires, insect invasions, foliage damage ... historical events are right there, in the pattern of the rings.

Is there a (metaphorical) equivalent for people, groups of people, or even whole communities? The years 2020 and 2021 will leave such a profound impression on the world. Surely the "rings" of this time would stand out, be unique, reveal a major disruption to the previous pattern of life?

When we look back on this time and the patterns have emerged, here’s what we’ll see.

Strategic gaps

Organizations are prioritizing immediate challenges over long-term ones. That means that programs, innovation, and long-term planning have been sacrificed to help organizations survive. In 2023 - 2026, we may see wider relevancy, leadership, and fundraising gaps. They are the price paid for survival.

A new financial normal

Revenue in the sector declined by 43% and that will leave scars, too. Less revenue means fewer resources for programs, staff, and capacity. The reverberations of this will be felt for the next few years, until organizations finish contracting or develop new programs and revenue streams.

Booms, busts, and time for rest

Rising demand for programs and services will also leave a mark. Some organizations will be better-known in their communities than ever before. Some will have adapted well to an online world and stay committed to digital strategies and digital deliveries. Front-line teams will (understandably) collapse in exhaustion when the first post-pandemic lull finally arises and take much-needed time to recuperate. Organizations that scaled up to meet pandemic demands may need to scale down when demand fades.

Leadership gaps

Burnout, already a major problem, is now a crisis. In the coming years, lower revenue and increased pressure will take their toll. As many as half of all charitable leaders say they’re thinking about leaving. Some may stick around longer, thinking they “can’t” leave. Others may dig in their heels and say “Enough!”. They’ll demand the support and space they need to do their jobs sustainably. In the midst of this turmoil, stress and pressures will inevitably cascade to staff. Succession planning is going to get harder. Culture will need to be more intentional, if it is to be healthy. Some boards will help their groups rise to the occasion and some will falter.

Evaluation rethinks

Staff evaluation and performance measurement dropped by almost 20% in the last year. What new routines are now being forged? Organizations may develop new indicators that better reflect the health and well-being of their employees. Some may shift to more frequent, informal feedback. Some may forget to monitor and evaluate altogether. Others may develop aggressive measurement as part of a rebuilding strategy. With an increased understanding of the importance of mental health and equity, it’s hard to imagine things ever going back to exactly the way they were before.

Remote work fuelling greater impact

Remote work could be embraced by organizations working in policy, research, advocacy (basically activities that don’t require place-based service delivery). Many social impact organizations were based in the country’s most expensive cities, and it made life too hard for early career or lower-paid workers. If you take away the astronomical costs of office rent and lower the cost of living, organizations have a chance to be more diverse, representative, and effective than any other point in history.

Lost voices, new voices

Women, in all their diversity, dominate the sector. But women have been hit hard by pandemic job losses. They’ve left the workforce, some aren’t seeking to return, and this will surely impact the sector. Experienced faces and voices will be gone.

Meanwhile, recent commitments to racial equity and reconciliation need to be upheld if the nonprofit (NGO) sector is going to earn back public trust. Lack of diversity at the board, senior leadership, and funder levels should be challenged; we should be seeing faces and voices in leadership positions that reflect all of Canadian society.

There is more to come

No matter who we are or what we've experienced, the last two years have shaped our growth. As people and as organizations, this time is leaving its mark. And there is more to come.

The last two years highlighted a lot of social systems that weren't working and needs that weren't being met. New ways of doing things are being tested. New voices are rising.

So we won’t just be looking at tree rings and noting where the lightning left its mark. We’ll be seeing all the new trees that took root.

Some day in the future we’ll be able to look back on this time. We’ll be able to see our collective and individual rings. We’ll see the new lives that grew out of the storm. It’s all here, happening now, under the surface.